What is foresight research?
- Direct translation of the term foresight (from the English. Foresight) into Russian is a vision of the future, a look into the future. According to Ben Martin, a foresight is a process associated with a systematic attempt to look into the distant future of science, technology, economics and society in order to identify areas of strategic research and technology that can probably bring the greatest economic and social benefits.
Appearing about 30 years ago, the foresight has now become one of the main tools of the innovation economy. At first it was used to form images of the future in the field of technology, where it was worked out especially well. Then the foresight technology began to be used in business roadmaps and the results of foresight projects became the basis for developing business strategies.
Foresight is a complex mechanism that achieves results by combining the entire system of methods used.
When conducting a foresight, various analysis tools (in some countries up to ten), work with information flows, work with the expert community, etc. can be used. Among them, the most commonly used method is Delphi, SWOT analysis and / or analysis of information flows, methods of focus groups or expert panels and scenario planning. Analytical methods play a decisive role in this work; they define the boundary conditions and formats for creating questionnaire panels, and create scenario development options that determine the coherence of future images and the strategies associated with them. link blocked by project administration
The range of looking into the future is also determined by the tasks of a specific project. For most current foresight projects, the most common horizon of vision is the 20202025 year. This is primarily due to the fact that such a time period is still subject to a lot of parametric assessment of experts and allows us to assess the possibility of the emergence of technology and its commercialization.
Foresight concerns the most diverse spheres of the life of society and differs in the subject and richness of the methods used and necessary for studying this subject. Foresight can be divided into classes (see the model in the figure):
according to the degree of coverage of the problems of global, national, regional, etc. (annular cut in terms of the magnitude and level of generality and integration of the studied layer);
on the spheres in respect of which the social, economic, political, scientific, scientific and technological, educational, etc., are being carried out (horizontal section in the socio-economic areas or sectors);
at various levels within the studied areas, for example, within the economic sphere it is a sectoral, cluster, corporate, etc. (vertical section)
Of course, it is possible to combine several types of Forsyte, depending on the goals and objectives of the study, as reflected in this three-dimensional model.
Forsyth varies in terms of time lag, or time horizon: it can be medium or long-term, but it is very important rather it should be phased and be monitoring. It depends on the type or class of Forsyth.
Foresight methodology is used today not only by developed countries to form strategic directions of scientific and technological research and their support within one particular country. Today, there are more and more examples of the application of this technology for active exploration of the future within the framework of the unified blocs of countries, as well as by large world corporations with the involvement of leading experts of countries that have a significant impact on the development of the relevant industry.
- Analysis of the book "The Saga of Forsytes"
- foresight - prediction, prediction, prediction.
That is, an attempt to build very long-term forecasts based on more or less reliable short-term forecasts.
This refers to forecasts for 3-5 years in the economy, in the development of science, etc., proceeding from the fact that forecasts for several months are considered more or less true within the given error limits.