What is foresight research?
- A direct translation of the term foresight (from English Foresight) into Russian is a vision of the future, a look into the future. According to Ben Martin's definition, foresight is a process associated with a systematic attempt to look into the distant future of science, technology, economics and society in order to identify areas of strategic research and technology that are likely to bring the greatest economic and social benefits.
Appearing about 30 years ago, foresight has now become one of the main tools of an innovative economy. At first it was used to form images of the future in the field of technology, where it was worked out particularly well. Then foresight technology began to be used in business road maps and the results of foresight projects became the basis for developing strategies in business.
Foresight is an integrated mechanism that achieves results by combining the entire system of methods used.
When conducting a foresight, various analysis tools can be used (in some countries up to ten), work with information flows, work with the expert community, etc. The most frequently used methods are Delphi, SWOT analysis and / or analysis of information flows, focus groups techniques or expert panels and scenario planning. Analytical methods play a decisive role in this work; they define the boundary conditions and formats for creating questionnaire panels, and create scenario development options that determine the coherence of future images and their associated strategies. link blocked by project administration
The range of vision in the future is also determined by the tasks of the particular project. For most current foresight projects, the most common vision horizon is 20202025 year. This is due primarily to the fact that such a time period still lends itself to a lot of parametric evaluation of experts and allows to assess the possibility of the emergence of technology and its commercialization.
Foresight concerns the most diverse spheres of the life of society and differs in the subject and richness of the methods used and necessary for studying this subject. Foresight can be divided into classes (see the model in the figure):
on the degree of coverage of problems global, national, regional, etc. (a ring cut according to the magnitude and level of generality and integration of the investigated layer);
on the spheres in respect of which foresight is carried out social, economic, political, scientific, scientific and technological, educational, etc. (horizontal section on socio-economic areas, or sectors);
at various levels within the spheres under study, for example, within the economic it is sectoral, clustered, corporate, etc. (vertical section)
Of course, it is possible to combine several types of Forsyte, depending on the goals and objectives of the study, as reflected in this three-dimensional model.
Forsyth is different in coverage of the time lag, or in the time horizon: it can be medium- or long-term, but it is very important rather it should be phased and be monitored. It depends on the type or class of Forsyte.
Foresight methodology is used today not only by developed countries to form strategic directions of scientific and technological research and their support within one particular country. Today, there are more and more examples of the application of this technology for active exploration of the future within the framework of the unified blocs of countries, as well as by large world corporations with the involvement of leading experts of countries that have a significant impact on the development of the relevant industry.
- Analysis of the book "The Saga of Forsytes"
- foresight - prediction, prediction, prediction.
That is, an attempt to build very long-term forecasts based on more or less reliable short-term forecasts.
This refers to forecasts for 3-5 years in the economy, in the development of science, etc., proceeding from the fact that forecasts for several months are considered more or less true within the given error limits.